Wednesday, June 22, 2005
Keeping Tabs
With the election still more than three years away, and a couple of announcements already made, it's time for me to begin keeping tabs on candidates for President.
Based on my wide array of reading, here's who I consider to be on the list so far. As I see fit, I'll also include some commentary.
Keep in mind, these are my impressions as of today, and they are listed in no particular order.
DEMOCRATS
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (New York)
As she's said, she's focusing entirely on her re-election to the Senate. Even though many polls suggest she'll win any Democratic primary and currently has a slight edge over the most popular Republicans, she's still a very polarizing figure. She knows that. Look for her to stay out of the race entirely. The only reason I mention her is because everybody else is so damned consumed with her.
Senator Joe Biden (Delaware)
He announced is intent to seek the nomination Sunday. He's been very public with his criticism of the Republicans. Other than that, there's not much to say...at least not yet.
Senator John Kerry (Massachusetts)
He's been traveling the country talking about health care issues. This will be a major issue in 2008 as more Americans deal with their obesity and as more Americans lose their health insurance. This is also a way to keep his name in the press. That said, I don't think the Democratic faithful will give him another chance.
Former Senator John Edwards (North Carolina)
Edwards now runs a center at the University of North Carolina studying poverty. While poverty certainly exists in America (no matter how hard Texas Republicans attempt to deny it), I think this marks the beginning of a return to state politics for Edwards.
Governor Mark Warner (Virginia)
An example of how successful we could be in so-called red states, Warner is making moves in Iowa (an early caucus state), and is meeting privately with party and union leaders elsewhere.
Governor Bill Richardson (New Mexico)
Another red state success story, he's made a political trip to New Hampshire, the state that normally follows Iowa in presidential voting. From his time as a cabinet member he also carries the Clinton mystique, which will serve him well in our primaries.
Governor Tom Vilsack (Iowa)
This is more press speculation than anything else. News today is half reporting and half guesswork. That latter half keeps Vilsack in the news.
Senator Evan Bayh (Indiana)
I've listened to my fellow Democrats talk about Bayh for many years now. He's not made the jump yet, and I don't think he will this time. Without a higher public profile, it's a jump that won't get him very far, anyway.
Vice President Al Gore (Tennessee)
This is desperation on the part of some Democratic activists and more guesswork by the press. Look for him to remain at the helm of his new wannabe-MTV.
REPUBLICANS
Former Representative Newt Gingrich (Georgia)
He's getting press from books, trips to New Hampshire, and the occasional disagreement with the Bush White House. That still won't take away the baggage from his hypocritical time in the House. He may run, but he won't win.
Governor Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)
He's likely to excite the uberchristian Republican base with his homophobic governance of a liberal state, and he's been visiting New Hampshire, but he's still not known nationwide.
Senator Bill Frist (Tennessee)
His efforts so far look just like Mitt Romney's. He is more known, but he will have a hard time explaining how his company bilked millions from the federal government. He might also catch some flack for attempting to diagnose Terri Schiavo via video...and getting it wrong.
Senator Chuck Hagel (Nebraska)
He's made a few visits to early primary states, but his appeal to moderates will keep the uberchristians from voting for him.
Senator Sam Brownback (Kansas)
In spite of a few visits to early primary states, nobody knows him.
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (New York)
Let me paraphrase the uberchrisitians: he likes gays and abortion too much.
Senator Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)
The uberchrisitians love him. When the rest of America reads about how he took a dead fetus home so his living children could cuddle it, their stomachs will turn, and so will their votes.
Governor Haley Barbour (Mississippi)
If he uses that same down-home charm that Bush uses (as he has in Mississippi), he'll be interesting to watch.
Senator John McCain (Arizona)
He's RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman's wet dream...perhaps in more ways than one. He'll also trick many uneducated voters. Many people believe he's a moderate, but one only need look to his record to see the truth. Unless the left figures out a way to reveal his true colors, he'll win the nomination and the White House.
Based on my wide array of reading, here's who I consider to be on the list so far. As I see fit, I'll also include some commentary.
Keep in mind, these are my impressions as of today, and they are listed in no particular order.
DEMOCRATS
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (New York)
As she's said, she's focusing entirely on her re-election to the Senate. Even though many polls suggest she'll win any Democratic primary and currently has a slight edge over the most popular Republicans, she's still a very polarizing figure. She knows that. Look for her to stay out of the race entirely. The only reason I mention her is because everybody else is so damned consumed with her.
Senator Joe Biden (Delaware)
He announced is intent to seek the nomination Sunday. He's been very public with his criticism of the Republicans. Other than that, there's not much to say...at least not yet.
Senator John Kerry (Massachusetts)
He's been traveling the country talking about health care issues. This will be a major issue in 2008 as more Americans deal with their obesity and as more Americans lose their health insurance. This is also a way to keep his name in the press. That said, I don't think the Democratic faithful will give him another chance.
Former Senator John Edwards (North Carolina)
Edwards now runs a center at the University of North Carolina studying poverty. While poverty certainly exists in America (no matter how hard Texas Republicans attempt to deny it), I think this marks the beginning of a return to state politics for Edwards.
Governor Mark Warner (Virginia)
An example of how successful we could be in so-called red states, Warner is making moves in Iowa (an early caucus state), and is meeting privately with party and union leaders elsewhere.
Governor Bill Richardson (New Mexico)
Another red state success story, he's made a political trip to New Hampshire, the state that normally follows Iowa in presidential voting. From his time as a cabinet member he also carries the Clinton mystique, which will serve him well in our primaries.
Governor Tom Vilsack (Iowa)
This is more press speculation than anything else. News today is half reporting and half guesswork. That latter half keeps Vilsack in the news.
Senator Evan Bayh (Indiana)
I've listened to my fellow Democrats talk about Bayh for many years now. He's not made the jump yet, and I don't think he will this time. Without a higher public profile, it's a jump that won't get him very far, anyway.
Vice President Al Gore (Tennessee)
This is desperation on the part of some Democratic activists and more guesswork by the press. Look for him to remain at the helm of his new wannabe-MTV.
REPUBLICANS
Former Representative Newt Gingrich (Georgia)
He's getting press from books, trips to New Hampshire, and the occasional disagreement with the Bush White House. That still won't take away the baggage from his hypocritical time in the House. He may run, but he won't win.
Governor Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)
He's likely to excite the uberchristian Republican base with his homophobic governance of a liberal state, and he's been visiting New Hampshire, but he's still not known nationwide.
Senator Bill Frist (Tennessee)
His efforts so far look just like Mitt Romney's. He is more known, but he will have a hard time explaining how his company bilked millions from the federal government. He might also catch some flack for attempting to diagnose Terri Schiavo via video...and getting it wrong.
Senator Chuck Hagel (Nebraska)
He's made a few visits to early primary states, but his appeal to moderates will keep the uberchristians from voting for him.
Senator Sam Brownback (Kansas)
In spite of a few visits to early primary states, nobody knows him.
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (New York)
Let me paraphrase the uberchrisitians: he likes gays and abortion too much.
Senator Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)
The uberchrisitians love him. When the rest of America reads about how he took a dead fetus home so his living children could cuddle it, their stomachs will turn, and so will their votes.
Governor Haley Barbour (Mississippi)
If he uses that same down-home charm that Bush uses (as he has in Mississippi), he'll be interesting to watch.
Senator John McCain (Arizona)
He's RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman's wet dream...perhaps in more ways than one. He'll also trick many uneducated voters. Many people believe he's a moderate, but one only need look to his record to see the truth. Unless the left figures out a way to reveal his true colors, he'll win the nomination and the White House.
